Pilot Shortage Revisited

    In recent years, the aviation industry has been struggling to get enough pilots. The aviation industry is getting larger, only making the problem worse. The airlines are struggling to find qualified pilots. After the Colgan Air accident near Buffalo New York, pilots are required to have 1000-1500 hours of flying depending on what kind of flight school from which they graduated. This leaves pilots to spend a lot more time at smaller airlines, cargo operations, flight instructor, or another small aviation type job. Not only do these jobs pay poorly, but to compound on the money problem, pilots spend an enormous amount of money for their education. A combination of a high education cost and a low starting pay leads to few people wanting to become a pilot, leaving the aviation industry short handed.

One of the largest contributors to why the aviation industry is short pilots is the combination of education and poor starting pay. Everyone knows that college is expensive for everyone. According to the National Center for Education Statistics, the average public institution cost for one year was 18,110 dollars. This includes the tuition, room and board, and other college fees. (NCES, n.d.) So over 4 years the average tuition costs roughly 72,440 dollars. This is a substantial amount of money, but compared to what student pilots have to pay, they wish it were this much money. The average pilot pays over 150,000 dollars for their training including their college degrees. (Fitzpatrick, 2016) Student pilots on average are paying more than twice as much as a normal college student does for their degree. For many, the initial cost is too much to warrant getting an aviation degree over another degree with a high paying job, such as an engineering degree. A degree in Mechanical Engineering has an average starting salary of 59,180 dollars. (Engineering Salary Calculator, n.d.) With a starting salary of that much, a student wouldn’t have to worry about not being able to pay their loans if they don’t make poor spending habits.

    For a pilot who just got their degree and are trying to make a living, they have to be even more conscious about their spending. For a pilot, the degree is twice as much as other degrees and one would hope the pay would be as much if not higher than the average engineer. However this is not the case for how much the average starting pay for a regional airline pilot makes. The average a regional airline pilot makes, which is one of the most common paths for a pilot to go if they desire to go into the airlines, about 27,350 dollars. (Fitzpatrick, 2016) This is half the amount on average than a mechanical engineer’s first year salary. So not only does a pilot pay twice as much as an engineer on average for college, but they make half as much on average for their starting pay. Since the new regulations of pilots having to accumulate more hours before they can get their ATP certification. By requiring these hours, pilots are forced to stay at these lower paying jobs. Meaning that they will be spending a lot of time at a poor paying job working poor hours. This is only yet another reason why America’s youth are not lining up to be a pilot.

    However, another reason why the airlines are having a pilot shortage is because another source for pilots, the military, is also having a pilot shortage. The military has always been a large supplier of pilots for the airlines. Many military pilots often leave the military and get hired into the airlines because of their experience. The Air Force in particular is having a pilot shortage that may be contributing to the airlines pilot shortage. Dan Lamothe states that roughly 3,495 jobs, or 21%, are not being filled. (Lamothe, 2016)  This is a concern for the military obviously, but should also concern the civilian industry. If the pilot slots were filled in the Air Force alone, that could have a potential of 3,495 more pilots for the airlines.

   

The pilot shortage is a very real scenario, that if left to its own devices can lead to having more planes than pilots. For those who are not in the aviation industry, this still may not seem obvious on why they should care. If you order something online, then it more than likely goes on a plane, if you plan a vacation overseas, you get on a plane. People who need organs from other hospitals are often put on aircraft to be transported quicker since time is important. Aviation is cemented into the economy as well as saving lives around the United States.

References

Engineering Salary Calculator - Mechanical Engineering Outlook. (n.d.). Retrieved December

13, 2016, from http://www.engineersalary.com/Mechanical.asp

Fitzpatrick, A. (2016, March 23). Here's the Major Crisis the Airlines Are Facing Now. Time

Magazine Retrieved December 13, 2016, from http://time.com/4257940/pilot-shortage/

Lamothe, D. (2016, August 10). The air force fighter pilot shortage is already a crisis-

and it could soon get worse. The Washington Post. Retrieved December 8, 2016, from the Washington Post website: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2016/08/10/the-air-force-fighter-pilot-shortage-is-already-a-crisis-and-it-could-soon-get-even-worse/?utm_term=.caf69e27a8a9.

Fast Facts. (n.d.). National Center for Education Statistics. Retrieved December 13,

2016, from http://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/

Job plans and Topics overview

My plans at the beginning of the semester was to become a pilot in the United States Air Force. They have not changed since the beginning of the semester as I already have my pilot slot and the first base I will be going to. This leads to what I will be doing after this year, where this summer I will be moving to Vance Air Force Base in Oklahoma to start my training. These plans have not changed since I am still on track to becoming a pilot.

The most useful topic that we talked about was the pilot shortage. When researching the pilot shortage, I also found that the Air Force is also having a pilot shortage which is trending to become more of a problem later. I also found this to be important because I learned about how aggressively the airlines are hiring right now to fill this shortage, but it may not last forever. By the time I get out of the Air Force, they pilot shortage may have ended and then I will need to possibly think about where or what I am going to do for a career. It is hard to say if the industry will still be short on pilots, but as much as the airlines are hiring, there is a chance that they will fill this shortage in 12 years.

The topic that I felt was least useful was the airline being fair for the U.S. carriers or not. I felt this wasn't that important because of my career path. I also felt that it wasn't that important because the U.S. carriers are still doing decent in the market. If another airline is performing better, then they need to reassess their business strategy. Some of the airlines that they are complaining about are offering better services to set them apart, while they are looking into just trying to fly people from one place to another, at least in coach. They got set in their ways and just refuse the change that needs to be done. Even though I felt this one was one of the least important topics, I still thought that learning about the systems that went into helping other countries buy American products was interesting.

Aviation Organizations

As I progress with my aviation career, there are numerous organizations that I can join. These organizations can be very helpful in some of the services they offer. Two organizations that I could join are American Association of Airport Executives (AAAE) and National Business Aviation Association (NBAA).

The AAAE is an organization that represents airport owners and managers. They represent and lobby legislation for the aviation industry, specifically airports. They also provide services such as educational development in the form of conferences, training, and they also have professional development opportunities (AAAE). Many of these are certifications that will make members stand out among others trying to apply for an airport owner or manager position.

NBAA also represents aviation, but it instead represents business aviation in the general aviation sector. The NBAA has conferences that focus on many subjects such as insurance, taxes for businesses, and workers' compensation. (NBAA) The NBAA also lobbies congress officials in order to protect small businesses in aviation in order to keep the competitive.

These are important organizations for me to belong to in order to help me get my foot in new doors to new opportunities. These can help me stand out from other applicants to further my chance of getting hired at a higher position. Not only does it help me move up in positions, but they can also help me save money by going to conferences and learning about better ways to run an airport or programs to help me save money  on essentials such as insurance.

Benefits. (n.d.). Retrieved November 29, 2016, from https://www.nbaa.org/membership/benefits/nbaa-member-benefits-guide.pdf

About AAAE. (n.d.). Retrieved November 29, 2016, from http://www.aaae.org/about_aaae/

Aviation Emissions

As the world becomes more aware of our addiction to fossil fuels, people are trying to limit the harm we are doing by burning these fossil fuels. Some people have gone to electric cars or hybrid cars. Then there are those who just point the finger at someone else, which is where a lot of people are pointing at the aviation sector to blame. To be fair though, the aviation sector does burn a lot of fuel and produces green house gases, but contrary to believe the aviation sector only creates about 2% of the total green house gas emissions created by people. (ICAO, n.d.) This isn't as much as most people would expect, but it is also predicted that this could increase by 3-4% each year. (ICAO, n.d.) This growth, if left unchecked could become a larger problem down the road.

One agreement that has been passed and is going into effect in 2020 is the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement is not aimed specifically at the aviation industry, but all of the industries around the world. It's aim is to keep the global warming from increasing by 2 degrees Celsius.  (Fountain, 2016) What the Paris agreement does is that it caps the amount of greenhouse gases a company can produce in a year. If the company goes over this amount, they have to buy "Carbon credit" to offset the amount they went over, these are bought from projects that are trying to offset the climate change. These projects are usually forest conservation, alternative energy, and other projects that are combating global warming. (Fountain, 2016).

Under the new administration, there is a possibility that Trump will pull the United States out of the Paris Agreement. He feels that it could hurt the U.S. economy if we stay in it. However, I do not know if he will actually follow through with this since he has flipped on some areas that he campaigned against during the elections. I do feel that if the U.S. does stay in the Paris Agreement, a new market for selling "carbon credits" could be started.

There is a real concern with global warming, there have been a lot of studies done showing its existence. Is it as urgent of a matter that is being expressed, I do not know. However, it's better to take care of a problem in smaller chunks before it becomes too large of a problem to fix in a small amount of time.

References

Fountain, H. (2016, September 26). ‘Aviation’s Paris Moment’ as Nations Near Emissions Deal. Retrieved November 19, 2016, from http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/26/business/energy-environment/aviations-paris-moment-as-nations-near-emissions-deal.html

Aircraft Engine Emissions. (n.d.). Retrieved November 19, 2016, from http://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/Pages/aircraft-engine-emissions.aspx

Is the Airline Market really Fair?

In order to help promote international trade and business with other countries. These are “bilateral agreements that the U.S. government negotiates with other countries to provide rights for airlines to offer international passenger and cargo services.” (Novelli, 2016) A catch for the Open Skies Agreement though, is that the company can not accept subsidies from their government. Two of the airlines in this agreement are Qatar and Emirates that are said to be breaking the agreement’s policy on accepting government subsidies. Both of these airlines however are owned by their government. With this, it is claimed that both companies receive billions of dollars in subsidies, about 42 billion dollars since 2004. (M.R.,2015) These include loans that have reduced interest rates, loans from their government that don’t have to be paid back, and fuel hedging are a few to name. Fuel hedging is when an airline buys an excess of fuel now on the prediction that it will be more expensive in the future. Where the U.S. airlines are having an issue with this is that if the airline ends up losing money on this deal, their government reimburses them for the loss.

The Gulf airlines are fighting the big U.S. carriers about their use of government subsidies. One example that has been focused on is the Airlines bailout when the three airlines (Delta, United, and American Airlines) were going bankrupt. The three U.S. Airlines  have received about 70 billion since the early 2000’s. (Everington, 2015) Another report surfaced as well about U.S. airlines receiving subsidies. The report shows that the airlines received over 150 billion dollars from 1919-1998. (Reed, 2015)

The Import Export bank is a credit agency run by the government that helps outside agencies get a loan on American products. It is specifically helps them by giving these companies a lower than market interest rate on a loan. It’s purpose is to help american products become more easily available and sold around the world.

The U.S. airlines are complaining that the market is not fair for them when they are being compared to some foreign airlines, but these foreign airlines are arguing that is fair. Who is the market unfair for or is it fair? Well, I feel that there is some merit behind the airlines’ view. The U.S. airlines aren’t able to get their loans at a lower interest rate and they aren’t reimbursed on a gamble they take on fuel hedging. This puts the U.S. market at a disadvantage because these foreign airlines can charge their seats far cheaper than the U.S. carriers. However, these foreign carriers also offer a better passenger experience on average than the U.S. carriers. This means that the U.S. carriers need to step up their game before they should be screaming an unfair advantage.

Everington, J. (2015, May 15). Etihad says big three US airlines received $70bn in subsidies | The National. Retrieved November 04, 2016, from http://www.thenational.ae/business/aviation/etihad-says-big-three-us-airlines-received-70bn-in-subsidies

M.R.(2015, March 06). Airline Subsidies in the Gulf: Feeling the HEat. Retrieved November 4, 2016, from http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver/2015/03/airline-subsidies-gulf

Novelli, C. A. (2016, September 16). OPEN SKIES PARTNERSHIPS - state.gov. Retrieved November 4, 2016, from http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/262234.pdf

Reed, T. (2015, April 14). U.S. Airlines Have Paid the Government $250 Billion -- Amazingly, Some Claim They Are Subsidized. Retrieved November 4, 2016, from http://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed/2015/04/14/u-s-airlines-have-paid-the-government-250-billion-amazingly-some-claim-they-are-subsidized/#5516e8576530

The Chinese Competitor: C919

The COMAC C919 is a Chinese commercial aircraft that is aimed at competing with Boeing and Airbus. Unlike Boeing and Airbus designs, the C919 is not certified for use outside China. Right now the problem is that the FAA doesn’t recognize the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) as a certification agency. (Perrett, 2013) This is the biggest hold up on the Chinese aircraft from being certified outside of Chinese airspace. I believe that there is a chance for it to be certified in the United States, it just will not happen for a long time.

If the C919 got certified in the United States, it could lower the price of Boeing and Airbus. It is no guarantee that it will, but in order for Airbus and Boeing to compete with a Chinese aircraft price. The biggest reason for the lower price in the long run would come from Chinese wages being lower than western countries. If an airline bought a Chinese aircraft, majority of the general public would not notice the aircraft. Most of the public couldn’t even tell the difference between aircraft from the same company or a Boeing from an Airbus.

COMAC is a Chinese aircraft manufacturer that is run by the government of China. They work with the CAAC on the aircraft as COMAC is China’s aviation company to introduce China into the worldwide aviation community. (COMAC) COMAC has another product they have worked on, it is called the ARJ21. As stated before it is a smaller aircraft to get China into the regional jet sectors. It can carry 90 passengers, fly 1,382 miles at an altitude of of 39,000 feet. (COMAC)

If the C919 were to get certified by the FAA, I do not believe more companies would join them into trying to manufacture airliners. Developing an airline is expensive as well as getting it certified. The Chinese were able to because they had their government help fund them in making their aircraft. Another factor that would limit other manufacturers, is that COMAC can manufacture their aircraft cheaper than Airbus and Boeing. This helps them get into the market, if another manufacturer in the west wouldn’t be able to compete with the price of the Chinese aircraft, nor could it compete with the reputations of Airbus and Boeing.

I have not found any information regarding Airbus and Boeing  reacting to the C919. This is both surprising and unsurprising to me.  I find it surprising because there hasn’t been much competition against them in recent years. With the C919, it shows that China is not afraid to take them on and could be a real contender against them. However, this is not surprising because of how hard it will be for COMAC to be seen as a competitor in the aviation community against Boeing and Airbus. Both of these companies have a very good reputation that any company would have a hard time competing against, let alone a newer Chinese company.

Company Profile_Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, Ltd. (n.d.). Retrieved October 29, 2016, from http://english.comac.cc/aboutus/introduction/

Perrett, B. (2013, December 16). C919 May Be Largely Limited To Chinese Market. Retrieved October 29, 2016, from http://aviationweek.com/awin/c919-may-be-largely-limited-chinese-market

Perrett, B. (2015, January 20). With ARJ21-700 Certified, Focus Shifts To Support. Retrieved October 29, 2016, from http://aviationweek.com/commercial-aviation/arj21-700-certified-focus-shifts-support

Commercial Space

April 28, 2001 Dennis Tito went to the International Space Station on a Russian Soyuz capsule for eight days, starting the commercial space race. (Wall, 2011) The commercial space race has then become more competitive with different companies entering the race. Such companies include Virgin Galactic and SpaceX. Both companies aim to bring space travel open to more of the public. Unfortunately, there are problems holding it back from bringing space to the public. One such problem is the cost of space travel, SpaceX will cost about 20 million dollars in order to fly with them into space. (Space Tourism: How Much Should You Save For A Space Trip?, n.d.) This limits the potential buyers to the top 1%.  Other hurdles would be safety, space travel has never been the safest, making space travel safe would help ensure that the people are more comfortable going to space if/when it becomes affordable to the general public.

Comparing the regulations of space travel to air travel, there are far fewer regulations. The regulations for space travel are contained in Title 14 of the CFR’s. Specifically they are in parts 400-460. (Electronic Code of Federal Regulations, n.d.) Most of these regulations contain that information on launch sites, how to launch, re-entry, pilot qualifications, and safety. Most of these regulations came from the Commercial Space Launch Act of 1984. (Price, 2010) I believe as long as safety is the number one priority and no compromises are made to safety, the regulations don’t need to be more restrictive at the moment. Since the industry is new, more restrictive regulations could prevent more companies from trying to start in this industry. If there are unsafe practices going on, then more restrictive regulations will have to be put in place to assure the public that safety is paramount.

I feel space travel at the moment is still at least 20 years away from the being affordable for the general public. It will make leaps in technology to make it more viable and reliability. Technology and interest in space has spiked, and with NASA not doing manned missions anymore, more people are showing interest in exploring space. Now that private companies are at the spearhead, space exploration and space tourism will be here sooner than if the government was front runner in the space tourism race. At first this will be a 1-time vacation sort of deal, but then later evolve into a means for fast transportation. This wouldn’t be viable though far beyond when space tourism is available for the general public.

To become a pilot to fly in space, they must have: a bachelor’s degree at an accredited college in engineering, biological science, physical science, or mathematics. They also must have 1,000 hours of PIC. They must have 20/50 eyesight corrected to 20/20 and a maximum blood pressure of 140/190. They also cannot be shorter than 5 foot 4 inches and 6 foot 5 inches. (Lethbridge, 2000)

Lethbridge, C. (2000). Spaceline: U.S. Astronaut Drafts: NASA Group 8. Retrieved October 21, 2016, from http://spaceline.org/astronauts/stsqualif.html

Price, H. J. (2010, June 28). Fact Sheet: Commercial Space Transportation. Retrieved October 21, 2016, from http://www.faa.gov/news/fact_sheets/news_story.cfm?newsId=11559

Electronic Code of Federal Regulations. (n.d.). Retrieved October 21, 2016, from http://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?SID=e88e980f1d8e363aa7e5e9247547e381&mc=true&tpl=/ecfrbrowse/Title14/14cfr417_main_02.tpl

Space Tourism: How Much Should You Save For A Space Trip? (n.d.). Retrieved October 21, 2016, from https://financesonline.com/space-tourism-how-much-should-you-save-for-a-space-trip/

Wall, M. (2011, April 27). First Space Tourist: How a U.S. Millionaire Bought a ... Retrieved October 21, 2016, from http://www.space.com/11492-space-tourism-pioneer-dennis-tito.html